Six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with UK energy household bills soaring, Boris Johnson’s government published its energy security strategy. The goal of the new plan was refreshingly clear: “we need a power supply that’s made in Britain, for Britain.” The strategy set out 10 big objectives across a broad range of areas – from offshore wind to green public transport.

Two years later, analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit shows that the UK is falling behind on all but three of the objectives. Worse still, the government has been pursuing a set of policies which threatens to entrench greater energy dependence, driving us further away from realising the its original ambition.      

Last year, the government has announced that it will grant hundreds more oil and gas licences in the North Sea. Referencing President Putin’s manipulation and weaponisation of energy, Rishi Sunak framed the new round of North Sea drilling as a bold strike towards energy independence. In the words of one commentator, the promise to exploit fossil fuel reserves was “the most patriotic way forward for the UK”.

There is a problem, though. Our North Sea reserves are in decline. Oil from new licences sent to UK refineries will account for less than one per cent of the fuels used in the UK by 2030. The result will be more dependence on imported fossil fuels and greater exposure to global price changes. In policy terms, the government is accelerating into a cul-de-sac.

The good news is that the UK is rich – incredibly rich – in renewable energy sources. Research published recently by Exeter University, shows that onshore wind and solar projects could provide enough electricity to power all the households in England two and a half times over. What’s more, renewable energy provides the silver bullet for slaying energy dependence. It is the only means to power the UK with energy that is both domestically produced and domestically priced. The trouble is that our policymakers haven’t done enough to secure their potential. Reforms to the UK’s sclerotic planning system have been slow and piecemeal – last year there were no plans at all to build new windfarms.

Newly-elected politicians after the election should look at Texas. The oil capital of the US now produces the most renewable energy of any other US state – 60 per cent more than runners up Washington and California. A pioneer in clean energy technology, Texas leads the US in wind power production and last year took second spot amongst all 50 states in solar power production. Texas has managed to exploit its geography, flex its state-wide energy grid, and deregulate its energy market to allow renewable energy to flourish where it makes good business sense.

Sceptics of renewable energy in the UK often highlight the intermittency of wind and solar power. They point to the country’s ageing electricity infrastructure, holding back £200bn worth of privately-funded projects as the queue for new grid connections stretches into the late 2030s. We will need, they say, to undertake a massive expansion of the grid in order to plug in new sources of renewable energy. Those eye-watering upgrade costs, so the argument goes, will have to be paid for by the British public, whether though taxes, energy bills or – most likely both. Most perniciously of all, this all feeds into an anti-green narrative on both sides of the Atlantic, presenting a net zero future as ruinously expensive for millions of hard-working citizens shouldering the costs.

But this argument crucially overlooks the arrival of new technologies which could transform electricity grids. Put simply, if we have a better-performing grid, we won’t need so much more of it. Across Europe and the US, grid-stabilising technologies are being rolled out that could dramatically increase the capacity of the grid for renewable generation - addressing a fundamental issue with plugging new sources of power into existing infrastructure.

In the UK, a new or returning government could maximise the impact of these innovations by pulling a range of regulatory levers to prioritise stability in the system. The result could be an increase in the carrying capacity of the grid by up to 30 per cent, while recovering 8-10 per cent of generation that is currently lost. And all without needing to spend huge amounts of money.

Whatever the outcome of the election, the UK has to address the trilemma of energy policy – security, sustainability and affordability – delivering the goal of the energy security strategy set out two years’ ago. The route through won’t be easy, but at least it’s simple: double down on renewables, optimise the grid, and ensure that our regulatory environment enables the best technologies to prove their worth.

Anna Bazley is the Head of Government and Regulatory Affairs at ENODA, and a former official at the UK’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).